Former BitMex CEO Arthur Hayes has published a thought-provoking new essay titled “Are We There Yet?” that examines the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $70,000 in price even if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in the near future.
Hayes challenges the prevailing assumption that Bitcoin’s value is inversely related to rate hikes. He argues that with high government spending and GDP growth, real bond yields have turned negative, making hard assets like Bitcoin attractive despite higher nominal Fed rates.
Noting Bitcoin’s 29% bull run since March and its stability above $20,000 through failed tests of $30,000, Hayes suggests the market believes deeply negative real rates could occur if the Fed keeps hiking.
Overall, Hayes expresses confidence in Bitcoin’s resilience even with potential further Fed rate increases, attributing this to highly distorted debt-to-GDP ratios disrupting traditional economic models.
In a world where old theories are being rethought, Hayes makes a compelling case that Bitcoin charting a path to $70,000 and new highs are not unrealistic despite rate hikes, offering a fresh perspective on crypto’s role in today’s shifting financial environment.
His nuanced analysis pushes back on the notion rate hikes will falter Bitcoin, arguing its fundamental value, scarcity, and role as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation could power major growth even in this scenario.
Hayes presents a robust, data-driven argument for why Bitcoin’s macro opportunity remains substantial regardless of near-term Fed policy, re-framing common assumptions.
