Former BitMex CEO Arthur Hayes has published a thought-provoking new essay titled “Are We There Yet?” that examines the possibility of itcoin">itcoin">Bitcoin reaching $70,000 in price even if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in the near future.
Hayes challenges the prevailing assumption that itcoin">Bitcoin’s value is inversely related to rate hikes. He argues that with high government spending and GDP growth, real bond yields have turned negative, making hard assets like itcoin">Bitcoin attractive despite higher nominal Fed rates.
Noting itcoin">Bitcoin’s 29% bull run since March and its stability above $20,000 through failed tests of $30,000, Hayes suggests the market believes deeply negative real rates could occur if the Fed keeps hiking.
Overall, Hayes expresses confidence in itcoin">Bitcoin’s resilience even with potential further Fed rate increases, attributing this to highly distorted debt-to-GDP ratios disrupting traditional economic models.
In a world where old theories are being rethought, Hayes makes a compelling case that itcoin">Bitcoin charting a path to $70,000 and new highs are not unrealistic despite rate hikes, offering a fresh perspective on crypto’s role in today’s shifting financial environment.
His nuanced analysis pushes back on the notion rate hikes will falter itcoin">Bitcoin, arguing its fundamental value, scarcity, and role as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation could power major growth even in this scenario.
Hayes presents a robust, data-driven argument for why itcoin">Bitcoin’s macro opportunity remains substantial regardless of near-term Fed policy, re-framing common assumptions.
