The high-stakes legal battle between Ripple and the Securities and Exchange Commission recently saw a new twist, with attorney Jeremy Hogan weighing in on the regulator’s odds of victory. His verdict? A mere 2.367% chance of the SEC decisively beating Ripple, compared humorously to the New York Jets winning the Super Bowl.
Hogan’s analysis closely examines the winding procedural path the SEC must successfully navigate for a clear-cut win. Should the SEC appeal the case next year and gain backing in 2025, the matter would return to the trial judge for further review due to the wording of the initial order.
Even if the appellate court sides with the SEC on programmatic sales, issues would circle back to the trial court again before yet another appeal. Ripple could then potentially escalate to the Supreme Court. Beyond wrestling with complex legal procedures, the SEC must also reject the settlement, win their first appeal (14% odds per Hogan), and persist through subsequent hearings.
External developments like new legislation could also thwart the SEC. Despite dismissing charges against Ripple execs Brad Garlinghouse and Chris Larsen, spurring an 8% XRP price jump, legal experts believe the tactic may let the SEC fast-track their appeal rather than waiting until next spring.
While the case remains unpredictable, Hogan’s analysis highlights the uncertain road ahead for the SEC to achieve unambiguous victory. For Ripple supporters, the regulator’s chances seem vanishingly slim.
