XRP demonstrated resilience over the weekend, climbing 1.44% to $2.3294 as investors weighed competing forces of legal uncertainty against growing optimism for spot ETF approval. The recovery partially offset Friday’s sharp 5.57% decline, which had pushed the token from post-ruling highs near $2.65 to lows around $2.28 following Judge Torres’ rejection of the SEC’s settlement request on May 15. The court’s decision to deny the SEC’s bid for reduced penalties and injunction relief created immediate selling pressure, but legal experts suggest the agency faces significant hurdles in crafting a successful refiling.
Legal analysts, including former SEC lawyer Marc Fagel, emphasize that the commission’s silence stems from substantial procedural challenges rather than simple administrative delays. The SEC must now demonstrate “exceptional circumstances” to justify reducing the $125 million penalty or dissolving the injunction against institutional XRP sales—a considerably higher legal standard than initially anticipated. Pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan reinforced this assessment, noting that any new filing would require meeting this elevated burden of proof, making quick resolution unlikely and potentially strengthening Ripple’s position in ongoing negotiations.
Market sentiment remains buoyed by growing expectations for XRP spot ETF approval, with Polymarket odds standing at 83% for SEC approval by December 2025. This optimism persists despite recent delays affecting applications from major firms including Bitwise, CoinShares, Grayscale, and Franklin Templeton. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart suggests approvals are more likely in early fourth quarter rather than the summer months, but ETF community expectations remain largely intact. The institutional demand potential mirrors itcoin">Bitcoin’s 131% surge following spot ETF launches, with comparable XRP momentum potentially driving the token toward $3 or higher.
Technical indicators support continued bullish momentum despite recent volatility, with XRP maintaining positions above both 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages. A breakthrough above the May 24 high of $2.4784 could target the $2.65 resistance level and potentially the 2025 peak of $3.3999. However, downside risks remain significant if legal developments disappoint, with potential support levels around $1.93 and the 200-day EMA. The token’s future trajectory will likely depend on the SEC’s next legal moves, Ripple’s strategic responses, and the broader regulatory environment surrounding cryptocurrency ETF approvals.
