Bitcoin rallied early this week but struggled to break the key $28.5K resistance. Three factors prevented further upside:
First, hawkish Fed policy continues to exert downward economic pressure. Vice Chair Barr warned of below-potential growth from higher rates. Real 10-year yields hit 15-year highs.
Second, BTC futures trade below a 5% premium, indicating a lack of demand for leveraged longs. Spot volumes also down to late 2020 levels as institutions hesitate.
Third, muted reaction to Ether futures ETFs shows fading confidence in approval of spot Bitcoin ETF. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust trades at a 19% discount to holdings.
Unless these headwinds shift, Bitcoin faces an uphill battle to break $28.5K convincingly. Monitor Fed outlook, futures pricing, and ETF developments for clues on the next major move.
